Projecting The State of Iowa’s 2018 D1 NCAA Qualifiers

Here we try to give you an educated guess on how many wrestlers all three state schools could advance to the Division I NCAA Tournament in March, including Iowa natives wrestling at colleges out of state.

Some conferences have held the same number of teams for the last three years like the Big Ten, so those conferences were easy to calculate an average for. Other conferences like the Big 12 have changed over the last three years so qualifiers needed to be moved around to get a true average. For example: Northern Iowa’s seven qualifiers from last year were subtracted from last years MAC Conference totals and added to last years Big 12 Conference totals and so on. Weight class strength in a given conference can fluctuate year to year, but the numbers show it is actually quite consistent.

These numbers are not a lock to what will happen, but they should give an idea to who is a almost a guarantee, who is on the bubble, and who is on the outside looking in to getting a berth to the national tournament.

These projections are based on two things:
1.) Average qualifier allocations each conference gets for each individual weight
2.) The December Individual Conference Rankings on Flowrestling

We will revisit this data again towards the end of January/early February when the new rankings come out and see if any of the qualifiers have changed.

 




Here are all of the wrestlers from one of the three State Schools and Iowa Natives wrestling and starting for their team out of state.

(All rankings are from Flowrestling)

Big 10 Individual Rankings
(14 Teams)
Iowa
125 #12 Justin Stickley
133 #7 Phillip Laux
141 #11 Vince Turk/Carter Happel
149 #2 Brandon Sorensen
157 #2 Michael Kemerer
165 #8 Alex Marinelli
174 #9 Joey Gunther
184 #9 Mitch Bowman
197 #2 Cash Wilcke
285 #4 Sam Stoll
Nebraska
149 #4 Colton McCrystal (Sergeant Bluff)
Purdue
184 #12 Max Lyon (Western Dubuque, Epworth)
  Big 12 Individual Rankings
(12 Teams)
Iowa State
125 #11 Jakob Allison
133 #4 Ian Parker
141 #4 Kanen Storr
149 #3 Jarrett Degan
157 #6 Chase Straw
165 #12 Logan Breitenbach
174 #11 Harrison Swalla
184 #7 Dane Pestano
197 #9 Sammy Colbray
285 #2 Marcus Harrington
Northern Iowa
125 #3 Jay Schwarm
133 #10 Jack Wagner/Rudy Yates
141 #3 Josh Alber
149 #1 Max Thomsen
157 #8 Paden Moore
165 #10 Dan Kelly
174 #1 Taylor Lujan
184 #1 Drew Foster
197 #4 Jacob Holschlag
285 #6 Carter Isley
South Dakota State
141 #8 Henry Pohlmeyer (Johnston)
285 #8 Alex Macki (Ballard)
North Dakota State
197 #8 Cordell Eaton (North Scott)
MAC Individual Rankings
(8 Teams)
Eastern Michigan
149 #6 Kyle Springer (Assumption)
Missouri
197 #2 Willie Miklus (Southeast Polk)
Northern Illinois
133 #8 Alijah Jeffery (Linn Mar)
PAC 12 Individual Rankings
(5 Teams)
Oregon State
141 #3 Jack Hathaway (Iowa City West)
SoCon Individual Rankings
  (8 Teams)
Southern Illinois Edwardsville
157 #6 Karsten Van Velsor (Ottumwa)



Here are the 2 or 3 year averages of how many qualifiers each conference is sending to NCAA’s per weight.

Big Ten Conference       Avg rounded up
Allocations By Year       to account 
  2017 2016 2015 for wildcards
125 7 7 5 7
133 9 9 12 10
141 9 7 8 8
149 6 6 7 7
157 9 7 8 8
165 7 6 8 7
174 9 9 10 10
184 9 7 10 9
197 7 6 9 8
285 5 7 9 7
Big 12 Conference       Avg rounded up
Allocations By Year       to account 
  2017 2016   for wildcards
125 5 7 6
133 5 5 5
141 4 3 4
149 5 3 4
157 3 4 4
165 6 4 5
174 4 4 4
184 3 3 3
197 6 4 5
285 4 4 4
MAC Conference       Avg rounded up
Allocations By Year       to account 
  2017 2016 2015 for wildcards
125 4 3 1 3
133 5 5 1 4
141 2 4 3 3
149 4 5 5 5
157 2 4 3 3
165 2 3 3 3
174 2 3 3 3
184 2 4 2 3
197 3 5 5 5
285 3 0 3 2
PAC 12 Conference       Avg rounded up
Allocations By Year       to account 
  2017 2016   for wildcards
125 1 2 2
133 1 1 1
141 3 3 3
149 3 2 3
157 2 0 1
165 2 3 3
174 1 2 2
184 1 2 2
197 3 1 2
285 3 3 3
SoCon Conference       Avg rounded up
Allocation By Year       to account 
  2017 2016 2015 for wildcards
125 3 1 2 2
133 1 1 1 1
141 1 1 1 1
149 1 1 3 2
157 2 2 1 2
165 1 1 1 1
174 1 1 1 1
184 3 1 1 2
197 1 1 1 1
285 3 3 2 3


Now what the heck do all of these charts mean?  Here is a list showing who will qualify based on data from above.

Iowa (7 Projected National Qualifiers)
Qualifiers
133 Phillip Laux 7th of 10 spots
149 Brandon Sorensen 2nd of 7 spots
157 Michael Kemerer 2nd of 8 spots
174 Joey Gunther 9th of 9 spots
184 Mitch Bowman 9th of 9 spots
197 Cash Wilcke 2nd of 8 spots
285 Sam Stoll 4th of 7 spots
Non Qualifiers
125 Justin Stickley 12th of 7 spots
141 Vince Turk/Carter Happel 11th of 8 spots
165 Alex Marinelli 8th of 7 spots
  Iowa State (4 Projected National Qualifiers
Qualifiers
133 Ian Parker 4th of 5 spots
141 Kanen Storr 4th of 4 spots
149 Jarrett Degan 3rd of 4 spots
285 Marcus Harrington 2nd of 4 spots
Non Qualifiers
125 Jakob Allison 11th of 6 spots
157 Chase Straw 6th of 4 spots
165 Logan Breitenbach 12th of 5 spots
174 Harrison Swalla 11th of 4 spots
184 Dane Pestano 7th of 3 spots
197 Sammy Colbray 9th of 5 spots
Northern Iowa (6 Projected National Qualifiers
Qualifiers
125 Jay Schwarm 3rd of 6 spots
141 Josh Alber 3rd of 4 spots
149 Max Thomsen 1st of 4 spots
174 Taylor Lujan 1st of 4 spots
184 Drew Foster 1st of 3 spots
197 Jacob Holschlag 4th of 5 spots
Non Qualifiers
133 Jack Wagner/Rudy Yates 10th of 5 spots
157 Paden Moore 8th of 4 spots
165 Dan Kelly 10th of 5 spots
285 Carter Isley 6th of 4 spots
Nebraska (1 Iowan Projected to qualify)
Qualifiers
149 Colton McCrystal 4th of 7 spots
Purdue (0 Iowans Projected to qualify)
Non Qualifiers
184 Max Lyon 12th of 9 spots
South Dakota State (0 Iowans Projected to qualify)
Non Qualifiers
141 Henry Pohlmeyer 8th of 4 spots
285 Alex Macki 8th of 4 spots
North Dakota State (0 Iowans Projected to qualify)
Non Qualifiers
197 Cordell Eaton 8th of 5 Spots
  Eastern Michigan (0 Iowans Projected to qualify)
Non Qualifiers
149 Kyle Springer 6th of 4 spots
Missouri (1 Iowan Projected to qualify)
Qualifiers
197 Willie Miklus 1st of 5 spots
  Northern Illinois (0 Iowans Projected to qualify)
Non Qualifiers
133 Alijah Jeffery 8th of 4 spots
  Oregon State (1 Iowan Projected to qualify)
Qualifiers
141 Jack Hathaway 3rd of 3 spots
Southern Illinois Edwardsville (0 Iowans Projected to qualify)
Non Qualifiers
157 Karsten Van Velsor 6th of 2 spots
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