Here we try to give you an educated guess on how many wrestlers all three state schools could advance to the Division I NCAA Tournament in March, including Iowa natives wrestling at colleges out of state.
Some conferences have held the same number of teams for the last three years like the Big Ten, so those conferences were easy to calculate an average for. Other conferences like the Big 12 have changed over the last three years so qualifiers needed to be moved around to get a true average. For example: Northern Iowa’s seven qualifiers from last year were subtracted from last years MAC Conference totals and added to last years Big 12 Conference totals and so on. Weight class strength in a given conference can fluctuate year to year, but the numbers show it is actually quite consistent.
These numbers are not a lock to what will happen, but they should give an idea to who is a almost a guarantee, who is on the bubble, and who is on the outside looking in to getting a berth to the national tournament.
These projections are based on two things:
1.) Average qualifier allocations each conference gets for each individual weight
2.) The December Individual Conference Rankings on Flowrestling
We will revisit this data again towards the end of January/early February when the new rankings come out and see if any of the qualifiers have changed.
Here are all of the wrestlers from one of the three State Schools and Iowa Natives wrestling and starting for their team out of state.
(All rankings are from Flowrestling)
Big 10 Individual Rankings | |
(14 Teams) | |
Iowa | |
125 | #12 Justin Stickley |
133 | #7 Phillip Laux |
141 | #11 Vince Turk/Carter Happel |
149 | #2 Brandon Sorensen |
157 | #2 Michael Kemerer |
165 | #8 Alex Marinelli |
174 | #9 Joey Gunther |
184 | #9 Mitch Bowman |
197 | #2 Cash Wilcke |
285 | #4 Sam Stoll |
Nebraska | |
149 | #4 Colton McCrystal (Sergeant Bluff) |
Purdue | |
184 | #12 Max Lyon (Western Dubuque, Epworth) |
Big 12 Individual Rankings | |
(12 Teams) | |
Iowa State | |
125 | #11 Jakob Allison |
133 | #4 Ian Parker |
141 | #4 Kanen Storr |
149 | #3 Jarrett Degan |
157 | #6 Chase Straw |
165 | #12 Logan Breitenbach |
174 | #11 Harrison Swalla |
184 | #7 Dane Pestano |
197 | #9 Sammy Colbray |
285 | #2 Marcus Harrington |
Northern Iowa | |
125 | #3 Jay Schwarm |
133 | #10 Jack Wagner/Rudy Yates |
141 | #3 Josh Alber |
149 | #1 Max Thomsen |
157 | #8 Paden Moore |
165 | #10 Dan Kelly |
174 | #1 Taylor Lujan |
184 | #1 Drew Foster |
197 | #4 Jacob Holschlag |
285 | #6 Carter Isley |
South Dakota State | |
141 | #8 Henry Pohlmeyer (Johnston) |
285 | #8 Alex Macki (Ballard) |
North Dakota State | |
197 | #8 Cordell Eaton (North Scott) |
MAC Individual Rankings | |
(8 Teams) | |
Eastern Michigan | |
149 | #6 Kyle Springer (Assumption) |
Missouri | |
197 | #2 Willie Miklus (Southeast Polk) |
Northern Illinois | |
133 | #8 Alijah Jeffery (Linn Mar) |
PAC 12 Individual Rankings | |
(5 Teams) | |
Oregon State | |
141 | #3 Jack Hathaway (Iowa City West) |
SoCon Individual Rankings | |
(8 Teams) | |
Southern Illinois Edwardsville | |
157 | #6 Karsten Van Velsor (Ottumwa) |
Here are the 2 or 3 year averages of how many qualifiers each conference is sending to NCAA’s per weight.
Big Ten Conference | Avg rounded up | |||
Allocations By Year | to account | |||
2017 | 2016 | 2015 | for wildcards | |
125 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
133 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
141 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
149 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
157 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
165 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
174 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
184 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 9 |
197 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
285 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
Big 12 Conference | Avg rounded up | |||
Allocations By Year | to account | |||
2017 | 2016 | for wildcards | ||
125 | 5 | 7 | 6 | |
133 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
141 | 4 | 3 | 4 | |
149 | 5 | 3 | 4 | |
157 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
165 | 6 | 4 | 5 | |
174 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
184 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
197 | 6 | 4 | 5 | |
285 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
MAC Conference | Avg rounded up | |||
Allocations By Year | to account | |||
2017 | 2016 | 2015 | for wildcards | |
125 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
133 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
141 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
149 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
157 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
165 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
174 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
184 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
197 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
285 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
PAC 12 Conference | Avg rounded up | |||
Allocations By Year | to account | |||
2017 | 2016 | for wildcards | ||
125 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
133 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
141 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
149 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
157 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
165 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
174 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
184 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
197 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
285 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
SoCon Conference | Avg rounded up | |||
Allocation By Year | to account | |||
2017 | 2016 | 2015 | for wildcards | |
125 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
133 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
141 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
149 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
157 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
165 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
174 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
184 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
197 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
285 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Now what the heck do all of these charts mean? Here is a list showing who will qualify based on data from above.
Iowa (7 Projected National Qualifiers) | ||
Qualifiers | ||
133 | Phillip Laux | 7th of 10 spots |
149 | Brandon Sorensen | 2nd of 7 spots |
157 | Michael Kemerer | 2nd of 8 spots |
174 | Joey Gunther | 9th of 9 spots |
184 | Mitch Bowman | 9th of 9 spots |
197 | Cash Wilcke | 2nd of 8 spots |
285 | Sam Stoll | 4th of 7 spots |
Non Qualifiers | ||
125 | Justin Stickley | 12th of 7 spots |
141 | Vince Turk/Carter Happel | 11th of 8 spots |
165 | Alex Marinelli | 8th of 7 spots |
Iowa State (4 Projected National Qualifiers | ||
Qualifiers | ||
133 | Ian Parker | 4th of 5 spots |
141 | Kanen Storr | 4th of 4 spots |
149 | Jarrett Degan | 3rd of 4 spots |
285 | Marcus Harrington | 2nd of 4 spots |
Non Qualifiers | ||
125 | Jakob Allison | 11th of 6 spots |
157 | Chase Straw | 6th of 4 spots |
165 | Logan Breitenbach | 12th of 5 spots |
174 | Harrison Swalla | 11th of 4 spots |
184 | Dane Pestano | 7th of 3 spots |
197 | Sammy Colbray | 9th of 5 spots |
Northern Iowa (6 Projected National Qualifiers | ||
Qualifiers | ||
125 | Jay Schwarm | 3rd of 6 spots |
141 | Josh Alber | 3rd of 4 spots |
149 | Max Thomsen | 1st of 4 spots |
174 | Taylor Lujan | 1st of 4 spots |
184 | Drew Foster | 1st of 3 spots |
197 | Jacob Holschlag | 4th of 5 spots |
Non Qualifiers | ||
133 | Jack Wagner/Rudy Yates | 10th of 5 spots |
157 | Paden Moore | 8th of 4 spots |
165 | Dan Kelly | 10th of 5 spots |
285 | Carter Isley | 6th of 4 spots |
Nebraska (1 Iowan Projected to qualify) | ||
Qualifiers | ||
149 | Colton McCrystal | 4th of 7 spots |
Purdue (0 Iowans Projected to qualify) | ||
Non Qualifiers | ||
184 | Max Lyon | 12th of 9 spots |
South Dakota State (0 Iowans Projected to qualify) | ||
Non Qualifiers | ||
141 | Henry Pohlmeyer | 8th of 4 spots |
285 | Alex Macki | 8th of 4 spots |
North Dakota State (0 Iowans Projected to qualify) | ||
Non Qualifiers | ||
197 | Cordell Eaton | 8th of 5 Spots |
Eastern Michigan (0 Iowans Projected to qualify) | ||
Non Qualifiers | ||
149 | Kyle Springer | 6th of 4 spots |
Missouri (1 Iowan Projected to qualify) | ||
Qualifiers | ||
197 | Willie Miklus | 1st of 5 spots |
Northern Illinois (0 Iowans Projected to qualify) | ||
Non Qualifiers | ||
133 | Alijah Jeffery | 8th of 4 spots |
Oregon State (1 Iowan Projected to qualify) | ||
Qualifiers | ||
141 | Jack Hathaway | 3rd of 3 spots |
Southern Illinois Edwardsville (0 Iowans Projected to qualify) | ||
Non Qualifiers | ||
157 | Karsten Van Velsor | 6th of 2 spots |